Well Sqeaker Mike Johnson has laid out his strategy for putting Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan Aid, and some sort of aid for the Indo-Pacific Region, and like everything else Johnson’s done it’s as clear as mud.
First, here is what The Guardian says Mike’s plan is:
The Republican speaker huddled with fellow GOP lawmakers on Monday evening to lay out his strategy to gain House approval for the funding package. Facing an outright rebellion from conservatives who fiercely oppose aiding Ukraine, Johnson said he would push to get the package to the House floor under a single debate rule, then hold separate votes on aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and several foreign policy proposals, according to Republican lawmakers.
This makes it sound like Mike is cramming all the aid into one bill with a single debate but 4 separate votes. However, Reuters describes Mike’s plan this way:
The U.S. House of Representatives will consider aid to Israel and Ukraine as separate legislation this week, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson said on Monday, more than two months after the Senate passed a bill combining the two.
Leaving a meeting of House Republicans on Monday evening, Johnson said the narrowly divided chamber would consider four bills altogether that would also include aid to Taiwan, U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific and U.S. national security priorities.
And NPR describes it this way:
Johnson plans to bring forward three separate bills on funding for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine. A fourth national security bill would likely include a provision that could lead to a ban on TikTok in the U.S.
"My phone melted over the weekend, you know, with all the members letting me know all their ideas," Johnson told reporters after the closed-door meeting with his members Monday evening. "It really was the will of my colleagues to vote on these measures independently and not have them all sandwiched together, as the Senate had done."
Another TikTok ban, what’s up with that?
Anyway Reuters and NPR make it sound like he will be putting 4 separate bills on the floor, separating Ukraine and Israel aid.
But NPR also says this:
It's unclear how the four bills would be sent to the Senate. It's possible they could be sent as individual bills or as one package.
So right now I’m not sure if we are looking at a single bill with 4 votes, or 4 bills with 4 votes, or 4 bills that will somehow be sent to the Senate as one package.
Whichever way it is, he has given House Democrats a gift by holding separate votes for Ukraine and Israel aid. Progressive Dems. can now vote for Ukraine aid and vote against unconditional aid to Israel, without having to deal with their conflicting views on aid to these two countries when they were combined under a single vote.
So what will the bill(s) look like and how will this all unfold this week? Here again is what Reuters has to say:
Johnson said the new House bills provide roughly the same amount of foreign aid as the Senate bill but would include differences including some aid in the form of a loan.
Republicans aim to release legislative text as early as Tuesday morning but will observe a 72-hour review period before voting. Johnson said votes on passage could come late on Friday.
So sometime today we will find out what is actually in the bill(s), and hopefully that will help clear things up. It’s a good bet that the Ukraine Aid will require use of frozen Russian assets with the remainder of the money and military equipment being in the form of a loan as has been proposed by the Orange Jesus from Mara-Lago. As long as Biden controls if/when the loan gets repaid, it’s no big whoop. Hopefully, Mike won’t include other poison pills for Democrats.
However, you can bet aid to Israel won’t be in the form of a loan. So Israel gets a hand out, while Ukraine has to pay us back. Only fair if you’re a Republican I guess.
Keep in mind that these votes will require a 2/3s majority to pass as Johnson is bypassing the MTG controlled Rules Committee. So the good news is Democrats will be able to control what gets passed.
After Friday and he dumps whatever gets passed onto the Senate, Mike is planning another week off for the House. Therefore avoiding a probable MTG Motion to Vacate for putting any Ukraine aid on the floor, for at least a week.
What happens when some or all of this goes to the Senate will depend on whether these are 4 separate bills or a single package, which is currently unknown. So we will have to wait and see what comes out of the House before we can start theorizing what will happen in the Senate.
Stay Tuned!